June 19, 2016

Clinton Vs. Trump | Who will win?

If you had asked me this question a couple of months ago or even just a month ago, my answer would have been Hillary Clinton without any but’s and if’s attached. But now, Its quite unclear.

I have been following this election from the beginning and I predicted it would be Hillary Clinton Vs. Trump for the final, long before others did. And, I assumed Hillary would win it in the finals very comfortably. But, What a ride it has been! It has become such a close call these days and rightfully so.

Though I knew Trump would get the nomination for the Republican Party, I always thought Hillary would have an easy fight and will win the election. But to everyone’s surprise (including me), Trump has been doing quite well in a lot of polls and even beating Hillary in some of them.

Let’s look at some recent national polls. The following stats show the winner and the number of percentage points they are up by.

  • Rasmussen - Clinton (+1)
  • ABC News - Trump (+2)
  • NBC News - Clinton (+3)
  • CBS News - Clinton (+6)
  • Fox News - Trump (+3)
  • Gravis - Clinton (+2)

As you can see Trump is neck to neck with Hillary in these polls and even winning a couple. Also, remember that the percentage points predicted always have an error of about 3%. So, Looking at these polls Clinton’s win is not as sure as it was before.

The main advantage of Trump is his ability to quickly switch from a staunch Rightist to a moderately centre-left (if there is such a thing) position. He was a big supporter of Democratic party back in the day and though now he has become a Right-wing republican, he still keeps his Democratic ideals and you see them in some of his Speeches. So, not only does Trump get the Republicans, he is attracting a lot of Centrists/Undecided’s and also some moderate Democratic voters with his broad appeal. And, that is a big deal.

Hillary on the other hand obviously can’t appease to the far-right voters just because they are just too far away. And, Hillary has been forced to take a Leftist position on several issues in this election because of Bernie Sanders.

But I think the main reason Hillary is not doing so well might be because she hasn’t actually started the campaign for the final election. She is still fighting tooth and nail in the primaries against Bernie even though she has the nomination in the bag. She is essentially battling on two fronts right now with Bernie and Trump. So, As much as I respect Bernie Sanders, it would be better for the Democratic party if he drops out soon. The longer he stays in the race, the longer Hillary has to fight him and that is going to hurt Hillary's chances more.

Here is what the Electoral map might start with

So with this,

  • Trump has 191 votes, And
  • Hillary has 237.

It all comes to the Swing states now. And, I personally think Florida and Colorado will be prominent among these swing states. A few other states might also come in to play too because of Trump’s persona and appeal. New york which is usually Democratic, might come in to play in this election as Trump himself, is from NY.

A similar analysis has been carried out here on CNN and the electoral map is from their analysis.

But for now looking at the map it looks like Hillary has an advantage.

Now finally coming to actual question of Who will win, I would still say its going to be Hillary, but I am not entirely confident about that. I am assuming Hilary will start to do well in the polls once she wins the nomination and may be then she can focus all her energy on Trump. But, you never know!

May the best candidate win.


Polls : 2016 Presidential Election Polls

Image: abc news 


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